Subject: How does Magic compare?
Date: Fri, 8 May 1998 18:07:39 EDT
From: Crnicoloff 

A long time ago, I had this random thought about Magic.  I didn't remember it
again until today...

It hit me when I was in Reno, sitting at the $3 Blackjack table, watching the
players.

There were 4-5 people at the table, but the numbers came and went in some
chaotic fashion.  Brian was at the table directly to my left, playing basic
strategy and doing okay.  A few guys were in the center, doing somewhat random
things, but stuff that made sense.  This lady at the very left of the table
was driving everyone around her crazy.

The dealer tossing everyone around her crazy.

The dealer tosses out the cards, everyone ponders their choices.  The lady at
the left has a 17.  The dealer has a 7 showing.  Not satisfied, she hits.
Luck is with her, she gets a 2.

The guy next to her has a 15.  He needs to hit against the dealer's high card.
He gets a Jack and busts.

The guy next to HIM has an 11.  He doubled down on the hand.  He hits, and
gets a 5.

Brian has a 14.  He has to hit.  He gets a 3.

The dealer flips his card.  It's another 7.  He hits again, it's a 4.

What happened here?

The lady who hit when she wasn't supposed to won the hand.

She took the 2 that would have gone to the guy with the 15, giving him a 17.

He, in turn, took the Jack that would have gone to the guy with the 11, giving
him 21.

HE, in turn, took the 5 that Brian would have received, giving him a 19.

The dealer would have flipped the 7, giving him 14, hit the 3, giving him 17.

The guy with 17 would get his bet back.  The guy with 21 would have won double
his bet.  Brian would have won also.

But one stupid chick who played like an idiot was the only one who won.

I think I read somewhere that the odds of beating the dealer when you play
basic strategy is 52% in his favor.  So if you play an infinite amount of
times with an infinite amount of money, you'll lose it ALL.

But sometimes, just sometimes, something happens.  You get dealt three
blackjacks.  You win 15 hands in a row and quit.  You're playingds in a row and quit.  You're playing like an
idiot, but you hit "the zone" and you win $3000 and go home.  Hooked.

Yes, this is a Magic analogy.  Let's break it down.

The "dealer" is your opponent, so your odds vary.  Let's assume perfectly
matched decks.  Utility decks with no hosers, with ample ways to deal with
each other's threats and advance the game.  Give them 50/50 odds against each
other.

You sit down to play.  You each deal your hands.  What your opponent plays is
what we'll consider the blackjack dealer's face-up card.  It's a hint you
stake your plays on.  You don't know what he's got underneath... or, in Magic,
in his hand.  What's in his deck is random, same for you.  If you pay
attention to what is in play, you can gain some insight as to what is left.

You're playing best 2/3, an artificially small sample.  Regardless of whether
you are winning or losing after this set of three games, you will have to
stop.  Unlike Blackjack, there is no way to even out the statistics by playing
until you are ahead.  Even matched 50/50, sometimes you will simply lose the
first two straight.  And statistically, that happens exactly as often as going
1-2, 2-1, or 2-0.

So what affects an equally matched game?  The order of the cards, and your
opponent's playing ability.  If you're good and your opponent's bad, you'll
win, right?

Of course not, you knew that when I asked the question.

I once watched a game of Tempest only...  a red bu of Tempest only...  a red burn-ish deck against a blue
control-ish deck.  The red deck cast Apocalypse, needing only one land in the
next 4 turns to win.

He lost.

Sometimes, you play basic strategy and still lose.

I saw another game where a Necro deck faced off against a G/W Armageddon deck.
The Necro deck carefully retained a land in hand, waiting for the Armageddon.
His opponent cast Armageddon even though there was a Disk in play.  The Necro
player played his land, Disked away the Erhnam that was beating on him, and
Necro'ed up 14 spells in a row, dying to a Spectral Bear.  His opponent did
everything wrong, but what should have been an advantage became a game losing
situation, despite the ability to Ancestral for 14 cards, because he drew no
land.  Even when your opponent's an idiot, they might still win.

In blackjack, if you're 48/52 against the dealer, how do you win?  You cheat.

Lots of ways to cheat at blackjack.  The most flexible way is to count cards.
Simply keep track of every card that has been played.  Are all the 10s gone?
Lower your bet.  Simple.

This isn't considered cheating in Magic, I guess because there's no way to
know for sure how many Impulses are left in your opponent's deck.  But most
people guess 4, because who wouldn't play 4 Impulses if they played them at
all?

In Magic, we consider this careful tally "strategy".  Are you playing
Bloom/Drain?  Is there a Drain Life in the graveyard?  I bet yoe in the graveyard?  I bet you only have one
left!

Such are the dangers of playing with a deck of known cards.

In blackjack, there are other cheating strategies.  If you carefully flex the
corner on the Ace that is in your hand, you can see where it is when the
dealer reshuffles.

We do that in Magic, too.  We mark our cards.  This allows us to make plays
like splitting tens versus a dealer Ace... or casting Prosperity for exactly
as much mana as we need to get to the next Prosperity.

Also, in blackjack, sometimes if you sit just right, you can see the card
faces just before they hit the table face down.

In Magic, that's usually more difficult, and we have to sit high in our chairs
to see what our opponent has.  Or else we read marked card backs.

So what does all this gain us?

It's simple.  Power over luck.  In a 50/50 matchup, either person can win.  If
both players are of equal skill, it's random who wins.

Cheaters win in the long run because, like in blackjack, even if they increase
the odds to 51/49 in their favor, over time the wins will accumulate.

In Magic, cheating has a greater effect.  All cards in an opponent's deck can
be known.  The order of the cards in your deck can be known.  Your opponent's
hand can be known.  Extra cards can be drawn, manipulated, shuffled to the top
or bottom, drawn from the bottom or the graveyard, brought in from your lap,
marked, folded so your opponent cuts to it, removed from yoent cuts to it, removed from your deck, dropped
into play, anything.

So what is Magic at a local card store?  It's a game where the best players
with the best cards win.

What is Magic at the Pro Tour?  Everyone has the best cards.  Everyone is the
best player.  When you take that away, what's left?  Some pairings.  Some
metagame.  Mostly cheating.

Like blackjack, the cheaters don't always win.  Sometimes your opponent will
hit on 17 and damned if it doesn't win them a spot in the top 8.  Sometimes
the non-cheater good players win, apparently at random, since they're close to
50/50 against everyone else.

So what is Magic, if we need to cheat to win consistently?

Gambling.

- Cathy