Regionals Analysis, The Field: # of known Top8 decks = 115 # of other decks known = 259 # of total decks known = 374 # of decks in regionals = ~1890 A couple of decks pop out from the numbers following below, namely the 5CG, Blue-variants and B/u-F.Orb. If you were playing one of these decks, you were more likely to win than with the other deck types (R/G does pretty good also). On the other side, WW and Mono-Black got creamed, as did X-Geddon. Other conclusions are left to the reader. Just having fun playing with the numbers... :) Frank Kusumoto The Magic Dojo - http://pw1.netcom.com/~fkusumot -------------------------------------------- The Numbers by deck, rounded to nearest percent: 5CG deck 7% of field, 14% of Top8, 17 Top8/10 others = 62% BigBlue/MonoBlue/BrowseBlue 10% of field, 17% of Top8, 20 Top8/17 others = 54% B/u (F.WOrb, Weenie/Counter) 7% of field, 10% of Top8, 11 Top8/16 others = 40% R/G and variants 13% of field, 16% of Top8, 18 Top8/30 others = 38% Sligh and BigRed 7% of field, 8% of Top8, 9 Top8/18 others = 33% MonoGreen (WOrb and Wintercharge) 4% of field, 4% of Top8, 5 Top8/11 others = 31% R/B (Incl. R/b,B/r) 3% of field, 3% of Top8, 3 Top8/7 others = 30% U/R (CounterHammer,AggroBlue,CounterBurn,FreneticMadness) 13% of field, 12% of Top8, 14 Top8/33 others = 29% R/W 2% of field, 2% of Top8, 2 Top8/5 others = 28% U/W (CounterPost and variants) 7% of field, 6% of Top8, 7 Top8/21 others = 25% Sq-Turbo/Stasis 3% of field, 2% of Top8, 2 Top8/8 others =20% WW and SleightKnight 6% of field, 3% of Top8, 3 Top8/18 others = 14% G/W Geddon 4% of field, 1% of Top8, 1 Top8/13 others = 7% Black Base (Necro, Black Ice, Weenie) 8% of field, 2% of Top8, 2 Top8/28 others = 6% Also Rans = 8% of field 4- FishDeck 3- ProsBloom 2- U/w Beatdown 2- SandsRipEq 2- U/G 1- Green BFC 1- G/R/U/W 1- U/r/w/g/b 1- G/U/r/w 1- U/b/r 1- U/b 1- U/B Discard 1- UrzaBasket 1- Celestial Dawn/Necro/Weirding 1- PingDeck 1- U WOrb Rough Color Breakdown (5CG is considered as all five colors): - 61% of winning decks used Blue. 52% of all decks used Blue. - 54% of winning decks used Red. 45% of all decks used Red. - 35% of winning decks used Green. 30% of all decks used Green. - 29% of winning decks used White. 31% of all decks used White. - 28% of winning decks used Black. 29% of all decks used Black. -------------------------------------------- REGIONAL ANALYSIS by TOP 8 DECKS. ------------------- Winning decks by category: 20 - MonoBlue and variants - (Counters) 18 - R/G and variants - (Bolts, Boas) 17 - 5CG - (Bolts, Boas, WOrbs, Counters) 14 - U/R and variants - (Counters, Bolts) 11 - B/U F.Orb and variants - (WOrbs, Counters) 9 - Sligh and variants - (Bolts) 7 - U/W Counterpost - (Counters) 5 - MonoGreen - (Boas, WOrbs) 3 - R/B - (Bolts) 3 - WW 2 - Stasis (Counters) 2 - R/W (Bolts) 2 - Necro 1 - G/w Geddon 1 - Rogue B/W ========== Total = 115 ------------------- What conclusions can you draw from all of this? :) Comments and criticism welcome! If you have any information about intelligence gaps (esp. top 8 finishers at the NY, MD and KS qualifiers) please post or send me the info. -------------------------------------------- Raw Data for Top8 - Breakdown by deck and player: 5CG - Nate Clark 5CG - Sean Fleishman 5CG - Kevin Stelzer 5CG - Walter 5CG - Cathy Nicoloff 5CG - John 5CG - Chris Pantages 5CG - Mario Robaina 5CG - Heath Jennings 5CG - Victor Nolasco 5CG - Will Hilts 5CG - Hal Tippens 5CG - Jeff Moeller 5CG - Kyle Misner 5CG - Michael Thicke 5CG - Blake Manders 5CG - ?? -------- G/r - Mark Nemeth G/r - Scott Johns G/r - Gabe G/r - James G/r - Mike Smith R/G - Al Newman R/G - Dave Price R/G - Koby Kennison R/G - O'Dwyer R/G - Michael Card R/G - Nelson Dees R/G - ?? G/R - Ashley Majzels G/R - Ben Petiprin G/R Weenie Hoser - Tanoa Stewart G/R - Danyel James R/g - Yubin Tao R/g - Gabe Carleton -------- Green WOrb Wintercharge - Geoffry Plauger Battleford - Leonard Richardson MonoGreen WOrb - Wade Olson MonoGreen WOrb - Jeff Eide MonoGreen - Shane Neville -------- Sligh - Jess Means Sligh - Ronny Serro Sligh - Sam Heckman Sligh - Max Slagor Sligh - Will Stammerjohn Sligh - ?? MonoRed Sligh Variant - Michelle Bush R Slighish - Ed Red Blast - Mike Arenson ------- U/R - Mason Greene U/R - Taer U/R - Igor Frayman U/R - Jason Zila U/R - Cory Jones U/R - Jason Gilespie (frenetic hammer) U/R - Rob Sarowski (frenetic Hammer) U/R Aggro - Sean Evans U/R Aggro - Greg Gilks U/R Counterhammer - Vincent Chan U/R Counter-Hammer - ?? BigBlue/Red - Taylor Buckingham BigBlue splash red - ?? Blue splash r/w - Worth Wollpert -------- MonoBlue Floodgate - Mike Loconto MonoBlue Big Flyer Time Elemental - Tom Guevin MonoBlue Firewalkers - Darwin Kastle MonoBlue - Chuck Leyda MonoBlue - Alan Comer Mono-Blue - ?? Mono-Blue - ?? BigBlue - Skylr Chamberlin BigBlue - Mark Globus BigBlue - Elliot Fertik BigBlue - Doug Leonhart BigBlue - Jason Schickli Bigblue Walls - Nick Floyd BigBlue Walls - Lance Tokuda BigBlue SnakeBasket - Josh Knapper BigBlue - Sam Lount BigBlue - Brad U - Charles lancaster (mini-blue) U - Steve Beachum (big blue) MonoBlue WOrb - Tim Kariel ------- U/W/g Counterpost - John Chinnock Counterpost - Eric Lauer U/W Counterpost - Jay Luo Counterpost - Kolton Counterpost - Nick Counterpost - ?? Counterpost - ?? ------- F. Orb - Adam Jansen F. Orb - Chris Czuba F. Orb - Andrew Nishioka F. Orb - Brandon Rutter F. Orb - Bob Maher B/u F.WOrb - ?? B/u - Eric Gonce with a For/Orb Variant B/u WOrb Recycler - Kyle Bigos B/u WOrb splash red - Jason Goral B/u - Keith T. B/u - Eric Kirkman ------- R/B ErgLightning - Vlad R/B - Scott Becker R/b - ?? ------- WW - Charles Malette WW - Ryan Simpkins WW - Rex Plunkett ------- Stasis - Brian Wilson Stasis - Brett Quorn ------- R/W - Jonathan Dearman R/W - Tim ------- Necro - Pat Chapin Necro - Joe Versboncouer ------- B/W Flyers - Allen Martin ------- G/w - Brendon Delaney -------------------------------------- Breakdown by region: MA- 150 ppl Green WOrb Wintercharge - Geoffry Plauger WW - Charles Malette MonoBlue Floodgate - Mike Loconto MonoBlue Big Flyer Time Elemental - Tom Guevin MonoBlue Firewalkers - Darwin Kastle MonoRed Sligh Variant - Michelle Bush B/u WOrb splash red - Jason Goral 5CG - Nate Clark NY - 140 ppl U/W/g Counterpost - John Chinnock R/G - Al Newman 5CG - Sean Fleishman ?? - ?? PA - 127 ppl R/G - Dave Price Blue splash r/w - Worth Wollpert Counterpost - Eric Lauer BigBlue - Mark Globus Necro - Pat Chapin Sligh - Jess Means Sligh - ?? Green Red - Ben Petiprin MD - 150 ppl BigBlue - Elliot Fertik ?? - ?? GA - 180 ppl U/R - Mason Greene R/W - Jonathan Dearman B/u WOrb Recycler - Kyle Bigos U/W Counterpost - Jay Luo R/b - ?? BigBlue - Doug Leonhart R/G - Koby Kennison ?? - ?? FL - 130 ppl G/r - Mark Nemeth B/u - Keith T. 5CG - Walter 5CG- Cathy Nicoloff 5CG - John U/R - Taer ?? - ?? TX - ?? Mono-Blue Counter-Hammer Counterpost 5CG Green-Red BigBlue splash red Conterpost Mono-Blue IL - ?? Battleford - Leonard Richardson F. Orb - Adam Jansen F. Orb - Chris Czuba F. Orb - Andrew Nishioka F. Orb - Brandon Rutter F. Orb - Bob Maher R/B ErgLightning - Vlad R Slighish - Ed MN - 120 ppl Sligh - Ronny Serro Sligh - Sam Heckman Sligh - Max Slagor 5CG - Kevin Stelzer MonoGreen WOrb - Wade Olson MonoBlue - Chuck Leyda MonoGreen WOrb - Jeff Eide Necro - Joe Versboncouer KS - 100 ?? - ?? CO - 80 ppl BigBlue - Jason Schickli BigBlue/Red - Taylor Buckingham Bigblue Walls - Nick Floyd B/W Flyers - Allen Martin BigBlue Walls - Lance Tokuda B/u - Eric Kirkman R/G - O'Dwyer BigBlue SnakeBasket - Josh Knapper AZ - 129 G/r - Scott Johns G/r - Gabe B/u - Eric Gonce with a For/Orb Variant U/R - Jason Gilespie (frenetic hammer) U - Charles lancaster (mini-blue) G/r - James U/R - Rob Sarowski (frenetic Hammer) U - Steve Beachum (big blue) N. CA - 131 ppl 5CG - Chris Pantages G/R Weenie Hoser - Tanoa Stewart Sligh - Will Stammerjohn R/g - Yubin Tao 5CG - Heath Jennings R/B - Scott Becker B/u F.WOrb - ?? S. CA - 105 ppl G/r - Mike Smith WW - Ryan Simpkins U/R - Igor Frayman 5CG - Mario Robaina U/R - Jason Zila U/R - Cory Jones MonoBlue - Alan Comer 5CG - Victor Nolasco WA - 174ppl MonoBlue WOrb - Tim Kariel 5CG - Will Hilts Stasis - Brian Wilson Stasis - Brett Quorn BigBlue - Skylr Chamberlin R/G - Nelson Dees R/g - Gabe Carleton G/w - Brendon Delaney AK - ?? WW - Rex Plunkett 5CG - Hal Tippens Slighbrary - Danyel James 5CG - Jeff Moeller B/r - George Lee BigBlue - David Derrickson U/W Counterpost - Ben Weaver U/R Frenetic - Leo Helmar Regina - 42 Red Blast - Mike Arenson Counterpost - Kolton BigBlue - Sam Lount BigBlue - Brad R/W - Tim Counterpost - Nick G/R - Ashley Majzels ?? - Adam B.C. - 50 5CG - Kyle Misner U/R Aggro - Sean Evans MonoGreen - Shane Neville U/R Aggro - Greg Gilks U/R Counterhammer - Vincent Chan R/G - Michael Card 5CG - Michael Thicke 5CG - Blake Manders