Subject: Zvi's Goblin-Hatred Deck Date: Thu, 11 Jun 1998 01:28:16 -0400 From: "Theron L. Martin" To: The Dojo While reviewing Zvi Morshowitz's evaluations about Exodus, I came across the Hatred deck. What he had to say about this deck in particular interested me greatly, since I and some fellow players had come up with the same idea at the prerelease this past Sunday. I fully agree that Hatred is one of the most despicable cards in the tournament scene since Channel was banned, and is definitely one to watch - why not stick one or two in any black creature-based deck that uses DRs? However, Zvi vastly overestimated the odds of getting the deck to work for a turn one or turn two kill. First, his basic premise is flawed; in a 7-card draw from a 60-card deck, you have only a 40% chance (roughly) of drawing *at least one* copy of any card that takes up four slots in the deck, which rises to a little over 45% if you start with 8 cards. If you need to draw *exactly one* of a card that takes up four slots in your deck (as you need to do in this case), the odds are more like 33.6% for a 7-card draw and 36.3% for an 8-card draw. This 15% differential makes a big impact in your final percentage. The second factor which complicates this matter is that there are two different ways to get the first-turn win: the Petal-Goblin-Hatred- Ritual-Ritual or Vault draw, and the same draw with a Diamond in place of the Petal and a guaranteed second land. Also complicating matters is the fact that the fifth position in each chain has 7 possibilities instead of four (3 for the second Ritual, 4 for the Vault). What is the result of this? Roughly, the odds of pulling off the combo on turn one are .87% if you play first, 1.3% if you draw first, or a little under 1.1% overall. Trying to figure probability of a second-turn kill is much tougher, because there are additional ways it can be done. These are: *(Turn 1) land, Vault; (Turn 2) land, Petal or Diamond, goblin, Hatred. *(Turn 1) land, creature; (Turn 2) land, DR, DR or Vault, Hatred. *(Turn 1) land, creature; (Turn 2) land, 3 Petals or 1-2 Petal + 1-2 Diamond (3 total), Hatred *(Turn 1) blue-producing land or land and Petal, Mystical Tutor (for DR or Hatred); (Turn 2) land, Petal or Diamond, goblin, DR, DR or Vault, Hatred. Please note that the Vampiric Tutor cannot be used in the above cases, or you won't have enough life to used the Hatred properly. Other factors are involved here, too, like the chance of having 2 (or, with a Diamond, 3) lands in a deck that only has 18 and what your opponent is or isn't doing - if they lay a Vineyard, for instance, it helps you immensely. Very roughly, the odds of you pulling off a second-turn kill are around 5.5% if you played first, around 8% if you drew first, for an overall turn two chance of around 6.5%. These odds do, of course, assume your opponent foolishly does nothing to stop this! Thus, the odds of pulling off this combo quickly aren't as great as Zvi made them out to be, and can only be accomplished in a deck specifically focused on this quick kill (which you aren't likely to see). However, the mere fact that you CAN do this should concern everyone. The real danger of Hatred comes from the fact that you only need to be at worst even on life with your opponent (lower is even acceptable if you are using it on a bigger creature) and be able to attack without being blocked to use it. This should make any defending player think twice about whether or not to block (or sweat a little if they can't block) when playing an opponent using heavy black with the capability to drop a 5-mana spell. One other comment about Zvi's evaluations: although I generally felt he was on the money with his constructed environment evaluations, I feel he didn't pay enough attention to the merits of certain cards that he rated as Weak when they are used in Limited environments. Furnace Brood, for example, is actually quite useful, in large part because there is a very wide array of regenerating creatures - or ways to make them regenerate - which appear in Rath Cycle but wouldn't necessarily make it into constructed decks (and everyone knows that regenerating is far more potent in Limited formats than in constructed). I won and lost duels at the prerelease solely because of this creature's ability, and a 3/3 for 4 mana isn't exactly shabby when your options are limited. As another example, don't sell Plated Rootwalla short in the Limited environment; the ability to pump it up to a 6/6 makes it a dominating creature that's very hard to safely block or kill with combat damage. I won duels left and right on both days on the strength of this creature. Overall, at least a dozen cards Zvi rated as Weak aren't weak at all when evaluated solely for Limited play. - The "Big T"