Subject: Re: The State of Magic - A Very Serious Letter to Wizards of the Coast (Very Long) Date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 01:11:52 GMT From: kgb@netcom.com (Stetler) Newsgroups: rec.games.trading-cards.magic.misc In article <6lrpit$amta$2@newssvr04-int.news.prodigy.com> "Nicol Bolas" writes: >There's a problem with this, people. One of the things that keeps Magic >alive, like it or not, is the secondary market. Games like Decipher do not >have a large secondary market, so it can afford to reprint ad nauseum with >nothing but benefit. It is the secondary market, in some cases, that is the >only thing keeping many of the smaller retailers in business. It is the >secondary market that keeps the money cycle of Magic going. (Short on cash? >Sell a couple of dual lands, enter the draft, sell the cards you draft, if >any are sellable. Wash, rinse, repeat.). It is my opinion that reprinting >will bring the secondary market to a grinding halt, and will start a trend >that will lead to the downfall of Magic, as people will no longer be able to >support such an expensive hobby. You've got to be kidding me. First you assume Star Wars (Decipher) does not have a large secondary market, when in fact some of its cards sell for more than anything from MTG that has the same in print status. Decipher has managed to maintain an impressive secondary market and retail sales without cycling out any of its core cards. Its possible that a partial factor is *because* of the continued availability of those cards. Its obvious the clearly inferior game play of the Star Wars CCG can't be the reason, and if the movie license alone was enough they'd still be printing Star Wars trading cards. Second, you assume that small retailers that sell singles are essential to the sale of WotC's products, when in fact those businesses tend to be sports cards shops with a MTG sideline and do little overall business in moving WotC's products compared to dedicated game stores and mail order houses. Third, you use dual lands as an example, when the supply of them had so saturated the market that 2 *years* after they left print they are selling for little more than double what they sold for when they were in print ($9-12 vs $4-6) and have pretty much stabilized in value. All this despite the fact that they are the one unifying commonality of virtually all Type 1 and 1.5 decks. Lastly, you assume that the majority of MTG purchases, or even a significant minority, are funded by sales of OOP singles. Lets ignore the fact that the vast majority of players and purchasers are not card sellers and do not fund their purchases by such. Lets also ignore the fact that the biggest source of profits on the sales of card singles is usually of in print Type II cards (the individual profit is lower, but the overall volume is greater). The bottom line is for every OOP seller getting rid of cards there must be a buyer trying to obtain them, a buyer that would prefer to directly spend that money by buying in print packs or singles if possible. Having a secondary market drive those purchases is much less efficient and less likely to result in the money actually ending up in WotC's hands than if they were printing the cards themselves. In fact, by virtue of being OOP, the restricted number of those cards actually restricts the potential number of players using those cards, and thus overall participation in and purchases related to that class of the game. As such the relationship between the OOP secondary market and current retail sales is marginal at best. The latter is solely driven by current player interest, and can increase over time accordingly. The former is, by definition, reliant upon the lose of interest in the format by one player being replaced by another - overall a zero sum game. The basic circumstances are you have to lose a customer to gain one. Most of the time you are spot on in your posts, but IMO you've really went out on a shaky logic limb this time. If the WotC bottom line accountants aren't regretting the restricted list, its only because its a viable excuse to spike interest by printing "sort of like" copies in an endless stream of new expansions. That may be the true reason behind WotC adopting the policy not to reprint cycled out cards. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Robert Stetler, kgb@netcom.com "A friend said he was into astral - - projection, but I told him he was out of his mind." - ------------------------------------------------------------------------