Subject: Reprinting, Prices of cards, etc. Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 11:27:44 -0700 From: Jason Barker Newsgroups: rec.games.trading-cards.magic.misc I have received approximately ten e-mails from people who are telling me my assumption on how far (or if) a reprinted p9 card's price would drop is just wrong. These people claim that the new p9 would be "tourney worthy" and would still have their high price tag. They say that my examples using other reprints (killer bees, city of brass, etc) are irrelevant because the reprints are not tourney worthy, and that the reprints which are tourney worthy still have a the original price tag for the originals. Well, I have taken 6 finance and 6 economic courses here at the UW, so I'm going to try to explain this in economic terms. Forget using examples of other cards, we will try economics to explain what happens when the supply of a good increases. We will use a Black lotus as an example. We will assume the current price of one Black Lotus is $300 and that there are 14,000 lotuses available. When an economist is going to make any sort of research on products, etc. the first thing they do is draw a demand curve on a graph. What the demand curve says is that at a certain price a certain quantity of the good will be desired. Price| \ (you can see that up here where there is a high price | \ there is a low quantity of goods demanded) | \ $300 | X | \ $200 | \ | \ $100 | \ (but down here where there is a low price | \ there is a high quantity of goods demanded) | _________|____________________________ 14 28 Quantity What this says is that if a lotus costs $300, then there will be 14,000 lotuses desired. If a lotus costs $100, there will be 28,000 lotuses desired. Now we must assume that if lotus were reprinted it would only be available in type I. Therefore those who desire lotuses only desire them for fun play or for type I play. If a reprint occurs the demand curve will stay the same. Price will shift, but this demand curve will ALWAYS be the same because the benefits of a reprinted lotus are identical to the benefits of an older lotus. Got it?? Ok, let's move on. (I realize this is not incredibly accurate, I'm leaving out "collectibility" and 'coolness" but that's because I think those are irrelevant overral. Bear with me and try to see what I'm getting at) Now, once there is a demand curve the supply curve is drawn next. We know that there are only 14,000 lotuses available so our supply "curve" will actually be a vertical line. There are always 14,000 lotuses available at any price (the demand curve dictates price in economics, not the supply curve) Price| Supply |\ | | \ | | \ | $300 | X | | \ $200 | | \ | | \ $100 | | \ | | \ | | \ _______|___________________________ 14 Quantity So where the supply and demand curves meet is the price. This is called "equilibrium" This is how the price of apples at your grocery store is chosen, this is how all the prices in the world are chosen when you get down to it (it's not scrye or inquest) Now, suppose there was a reprint. Demand would remain constant, because the demand just says how many lotuses are desired for a certain price. This will not change because Lotuses are still only good for type I play and for fun play. The Lotus has no added features or benefits. A reprinted lotus is the exact same as an unlimited Lotus is now. So if you don't want a lotus now you won't want one after the reprint. If you want a lotus now for $50 (assuming you can't resell it) then you will want one for $50 after the reprint. However, Quantity will increase. Let's say that they reprint 14,000 lotuses, and double the current supply. Price| \ Old Supply | \ | | \ | $300 | X | | \ $200 | | \ | | \ $100 | | New Supply | | X | | | \ __________|________|___\__________________ 14 28 Quantity You should be able to clearly see what would happen. The demand would remain constant (demand is how many lotuses are desired at a certain price) but the supply would shift right. This would lower price to less than $100. Now this is only hypothetical, but the analysis is dead on theoretically. The price would lower significantly, but we can't say what the new equilibrium point would be without significant analysis. If there were a reprint of ANYTHING it's value would decrease if it's possible uses remained constant. If they reprinted Maze of Ith, or duals but they were only legal in current formats, their value would decrease. If they reprinted P9 but kept them legal only in type I, the value would plummet. It has nothing to do with "playability" and everything to do with supply and demand. Prices on Spirit Link did not drop by $20 within four days because people "magically" discovered spirit link sucked, it dropped because everyone knew there was a greater supply available. Same with Killer Bees, Carrion Ants and all the other 4th/chronicles reprints. You may ask me "Yeah, well Jason, I can prove anything if that is my goal. I don't buy your BS because how could an Arabians City of Brass be worth $20 prior to chronicles, and be worth $20 now when it is also in print in Chronicles and fifth edition?? If increased supply decreased the price, then how the HELL can the price still be the same??!?!?!" That is an easy question to answer. Simply because the city of brass received added "bonuses" when it was reprinted. It became type II legal. Therefore the demand curve will shift right as well. After the demand and supply curves have finished shifting (it takes a while in real life) there will always be a new equilibrium point. In the case of cities and erhnams, the demand shifted so far because people want the originals in their type II decks. The demand shift countered the supply shift, and the new equilibrium point ended up at approximately the same point as the old one. Remember, demand is all about how many "goods" are desired at a certain price. If City of Brass was type II legal but NOT reprinted (only available in arabians) then the supply curve would stay stagnant, while the demand curve shifted right. The new equilibrium point would be higher than the previous point, which means the price would be more. Look at the graphs above to try to walk yourself through this. I hope this has cleared up confusion on what prices would do if there were a reprint and why. jason ps: What monopolies do is control the supply of the good. The result of fixing supply also fixes a price. Monopolies don't charge a "high" price for goods (as is commonly thought) they just restrict quantity and let equilibrium raise their prices.