Subject: an analysis of Ursa's Saga draft
Date: Wed, 02 Dec 1998 00:37:14 PST
From: "Brian Weissman" <brian_weissman@hotmail.com>
To: fkusumot@ix.netcom.com

 Hello all! Well, Urza's Saga has been out for almost two months now,
and I figure it's about time I wrote up an analysis of it in draft.  My
opinions draw from about fifty or so 4-8 person drafts, and I will be
assuming that relative card value is the same for both Booster and
Rochester.  I will describe the colors in order of draftability, and I
will include what, are in my opinion, the top five picks.  Enjoy.

1. Green

    Yes, believe it or not, the rumors are true!  Green is the best,
most easily drafted and competitive color in Saga. It has an incredible
array of common creatures all the way up the curve, and it has fantastic
uncommons.  The color stumbles a bit with its rares, but this weakness
is more than compensated for by the depth of the commons.  Green is best
complimented by white and blue: for some reason black/green just doesn't
come together well.  Among skilled players, green sometimes undergoes
the fate of black in all-Tempest draft: it winds up being split among
four or five players.  It will come up short in such scenarios, but on
the whole, it is worth forcing early. The five best commons (assuming
first pack), are the following.

1. Symbiosis: This spell has incredible strategic power and is very,
very hard to work around.  It compliments any strategy and it is the
purest common two for one in the set.  It can also finish an opponent in
a manner similar to Fireblast.  All this, for only two mana!

2. Winding Wurm: Echo aside, this thing just dominates the playfield the
turn it comes down.  Green has a great deal of mana acceleration, and
it's not difficult to get one of these guys out turn three or four.  It
basically has protection from Red, and any color will be hard pressed to
handle it.  Be wary when playing it against black, it's often worth
waiting till six mana.

3. Treetop Rangers: One of the best evasion creatures in the set,
especially because of its two toughness.  Armor one of these guys up
with Brilliant Halo, and you've got a creature that will likely go all
the way.

4. Blanchwood Treefolk: Just huge and solid. Blanchwood Treefolk are a
safer third turn play than the Winding Wurm, though they pay slightly
lower dividends.  Still, 4/5 will beat everything common in the set in
combat but the Wurm, and you don't need to worry about echo.  A good mix
of trees and wurms work well; too many of either can be problematic.

5. Acridian: An absolutely amazing echo creature, the Acridian kills the
early game of both green and red.  A slightly better pick than the
Argothian Swine(they do come together), though you probably don't want
to start more than three.

2. Black

   Boasting great common removal and two deadly flyers, black would be
the best color in the set were in not for the existence of a common 2/2
swampwalker. I don't know how many "invincible" black decks I've lost
with against some guy that just goes turn 3 Bog Raider, turn 4 Bog
Raider.  Still, if you draft Bog Raiders highly, you can avoid having to
face them and can wind up with a deck that just demolishes everything.
Without a doubt, black has the highest potential in Urza's Saga, and it
combos best with white and blue.  Here are its top five cards.

1. Pestilence: What can I say about the most powerful spell ever made
for limited formats?  Even with the large quantity of enchantment
removal available in the set, Pestilence still gets my vote as the
strongest card in Urza's Saga draft.  It can swing whole games in an
instant, and if used correctly, it can garner a brainless auto-win.  The
allure of this spell alone makes committing to black worth it.

2. Expunge: I'm still a little unsure about Expunge's strength relative
to Befoul.  It does have cycling, but the latter spell's ability to
destroy land is incredibly useful.  Still, instant speed removal is good
against the perma-enchantments, and Expunge is probably a little better
because of that.

3. Befoul: Definitely at its best against red and green, Befoul is
almost always a first pick.  Barring an incredible rare or uncommon, you
will always take either this spell or expunge in a pack, since the
common sequence doesn't allow them to be paired with each other, or with
Pestilence.  Only a few commons in other colors are better.

4. Ravenous Skirge: This creature is essentially a black Cloud Spirit,
and in a format light in flyers, that makes it incredibly strong.  It's
a little slower than the Skittering Skirge, but it has virtually no
drawback and can put huge pressure on green.  Probably the third best
common flyer in the set.

5. Phyrexian Ghoul: It's a hard choice between this guy and the
Skittering Skirge, but the Ghoul seems just a little stronger to me.
One of black's foils is an inability to survive in the early game, and
the Ghoul gives the color some early defense.  Also, he makes the
Cackling Fiend a much better deal.  If you're drafting near mono black,
then Looming Shade is a better pick than the Ghoul.  Despondency is also
very close in power, and is better for some decks.

3. White

    To compensate for the fact that five of its common slots are tied up
in Runes of Protection, white has some of the highest quality commons in
the set. The color isn't rated higher because it lacks depth, but it is
a perfect compliment to any strategy. Every good white common takes only
a single colored mana to cast, and late pick Runes can prove decisive.
Unfortunately, many players take white cards in their early packs, and
it often winds up getting spread too thin.  Here are its five best
commons spells.

1. Sanctum Custodian:  What if they went and made Orim-Samite Healer a
common?  This guy singlehandedly destroys red and green.  He can also be
totally key in a match with blue or white, since those colors offer only
one real solution to him.  Sanctum Custodian effectively increases the
toughness of all your creatures by two, and he makes mighty creatures
like Winding Wurm trade for little dorks like Opal Caryatid.  This guy
is a no brainer first pick: you can't have too many in your deck.

2. Pacifism: Not too much of an explanation needed, though multiple
pacifisms aren't quite as good because of cards like Hush and Wizard
Mentor.  Additionally, the card isn't absolute removal, so you still get
wrecked by "passive" creatures that don't have to attack to mess with
you.  Still, in a white/green deck, a few pacified early blockers will
almost guarantee the game.

3. Pegasus Charger: This creature is fearsome, and, as one of the few
first strikers in the set, it can completely hold off an opponent's
early offense. Its one toughness makes it very fragile however, and your
opponent is likely to have a Shower of Sparks or a Sicken or something
lying in wait.  Still, the charger is a solid beatdown creature, and
it's a good thing to "wake up" opposing Opal Gargoyles with.

4. Path of Peace:   Path of Peace gives white something it hasn't had
since Swords to Plowshares: real creature destruction. When drafting
white/blue or white/green, having at least one of these is a necessity.
Without Path of Peace, you can find yourself in unwinnable situations
facing some huge threat which isn't stopped by Pacifism.  The four life
it gives makes racing tough, but neither white/blue nor white/green
should have to race.  I think two of these in a deck is a good number.

5. Opal Gargoyle: This underrated sleeper wrecks the early game of red
and green.  I think that he is the best of the Opal creatures with the
possible exception of the Titan.  Anything that flies in Urza's Saga is
a factor, and a 2/2 for 1W is an amazing deal.  A turn two Opal Gargoyle
will often force an opponent into a corner where they are screwed if
they play a creature, but must do so anyway.

4.  Blue

   Blue in Urza's Saga is good in only two situations.  1. If it is used
as a defensive/flying component of a white or green base, or 2. if you
get tons of broken rares.  You can't count on the latter situation, so
you shouldn't try to build your deck around the color. Nonetheless, Blue
has some great high picks, and it combos extremely well with green and
white.  It is undoubtedly inferior to all colors but red; hopefully it
will be improved in Urza's Legacy. These are the five best blue commons.

1.  Pendrell Drake: Who would have thought that the best blue common is
a humble 2/3 flyer for 3U.  Just imagine if this guy didn't have
cycling, he would cost 2U!  Seriously though, 2/3 is the best stat for a
common flyer, and the Pendrell Drake can kill or flat out best all the
other common flyers in combat.  It's tough enough to avoid bad deals
against cards like Arc Lightning and Sicken and it is cheap enough to
still be a factor in early racing.   I've had decks with three Pendrell
Drakes that won many games off that fact alone.

2.  Many different cards:  I'll explain what I mean here.  There are
about four or five cards that are drafted right behind the Drake,
depending on what strategy you are planning.  These ones come to mind:
Hermetic Study, Horseshoe Crab, Veiled Serpent, Power Sink, and Wizard
Mentor.  Crabs are important in blue/white, but are not so critical in
blue/green.  Study is amazing if you have multiple crabs in your deck,
but just average if you don't.  Veiled Serpents are critical for early
stall in a blue/white or black/blue deck, but they are chaff in
aggressive blue/green.   Wizard Mentor is fantastic against red, white
and black, but not so amazing against green and blue.   And Power Sink
is the best counterspell available in the format;  having at least one
is crucial for many designs.  I'll leave it up to you to decide what
order you favor these spells.  It will most likely just come down to
personal preference and style.

5.  Red!

   At long last,the beast that is limited-format red is tamed!  And it's
high time I must say, since red was so hideously powerful in Rath Cycle
and in Mirage Block.  Without a doubt, red got the utter shaft in Urza's
Saga, so much so that it's pitiful.  Maybe the creatures would have
worked well in Mirage or in Tempest, but against the stuff in this set,
they just fall short.  Hordes of grizzly bears and grey ogres just can't
compete with the fat and evasion of other colors, and without a common
anti-player X spell, red can't finish a badly damaged player.  The only
time I have seen red do well was when it was drafted by only one player
at a table.  As Casey Mccarrel proved at Pro Tour NY, even the suckiest
color in a format can be decent if you get all of it!  Red does have
AMAZING rares, and if you get lucky enough to get a couple of them, it
could just work out. But don't draft the color expecting to be rewarded:
the rewards just won't come.   Here are red's five best spells.

1. Arc Lightning: Why couldn't this spell be in Tempest?  Mini
pyrotechnics isn't bad at all, but against the horde of 2/2's and 3/3's
in Saga, it just isn't all that great.  It is very often a two for one
against blue/white, but you can seldom even kill a green creature with
it.  It is the one direct common way to finish a badly damaged opponent,
though red's second best spell is better for that.

2.  Falter: I'm serious, read that again.  Falter.  The only reason why
I didn't put this first is because it is SO undervalued.  It's
definitely a better spell than Arc Lightning, but you can probably get
as many of these as you want, even very late into the draft.  Why is it
so good you ask?  Basically, red in Urza's Saga is adept at dealing
about 10 points of damage. Provided your opponent doesn't cast an early
Acridian, you can probably get them below ten life in the first five or
so turns of the game. After that however, your goblins come to a
screeching halt, and then generally sit there chump blocking wurms or
treefolk or serpents or whatever until you die.  Falter gives you a way
around this pitfall, and it is the one spell that can make an aggressive
red/green weenie strategy work.  Everyone thinks red is HORRIBLE because
they try to play it like Sligh. That never works, trust me.  When you
get passed a pack and it's got Falter in it, grab it up!  Consider it
the Kaervek's Torch of the format.

3.  Viashino Outrider: This guy is just powerful enough to be taken
seriously.   He'll often wind up dying in combat with a Veiled Serpent
or a Gorilla Warrior, but occasionally, an Outrider will get out and do
a lot of damage.  His echo liability makes him a little less golden, but
he's still red's most solid common creature.  Red is so bad in Saga that
even three casting cost-Lowland Giants don't cut it. What's going on?

4.  Heat Ray: An all around useful spell, Heat Ray would be a lot better
if its instant speed was more of a factor. The problem is, it's just
pricey, and when playing red, your mana is often tied up with Echo.
Heat Ray is totally garbage against Green's undercosted echo guys, but
it can be great for taking out flyers and small gang blockers. Two or so
is a good number for a deck.

5.   Goblin Patrol: A fearsome beatdown creature, Goblin Patrol can deal
a lot of damage to a slow deck with a poor draw.  Having at least a
couple of these guys in your deck is very important for early pressure:
they're MUCH better than Goblin War Buggy.  If you're deck is really low
on removal, you might consider taking Goblin Spelunkers over Patrol
since they come together. And Viashino Runner works better in some
decks.

   So that wraps it up for my lengthy synopsis. Urza's Saga draft is
still relatively new, and I am sure that as time goes by, the order of
some of  these spells will change.  In a couple of cases, the number six
spell has been just inches off the list, and I have tried to indicate
where this was true. I hope this article is useful to you, let me know
if you have any thoughts.  Take care.

Brian Weissman
Team Legion(www.freenet.tlh.fl.us/~nicoloff)

Brian Weissman appears courtesy of Collectmart.com, the Largest Magic
Card Sale on the Internet!

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